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US economy suffers sharp nosedive

Shipping containers, Long Beach, California
Falling exports have hurt US economic growth

The US economy shrank at an annual rate of 6.2% in the last three months of 2008 official figures show, a far sharper fall than previously reported.

Plunging exports and the biggest fall in consumer spending in 28 years dragged the annualised figure down from an earlier estimate of 3.8%.

The decline was much worse than analysts had expected, sending US stocks spiralling lower.

In 2008 as a whole, the economy grew by 1.1%, the slowest pace since 2001.

The blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average dropped 119.15 points, or 1.66%, to 7,062.93. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 2.36% to 735.09 - a 12-year low.

Recession warning

Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of domestic economic activity, fell by a rate of 4.3% in the final quarter - the biggest fall since the second quarter of 1980. This was a revision of the earlier figure of 3.5%.

With rising unemployment, sliding home values, increasing numbers of repossessions and the slumping value of investments, observers say many US consumers are hanging on to whatever disposable cash they have.

Meanwhile, exports - which had until recently been supporting the economy - fell at the sharpest rate since 1970 at an annual rate of 23.6%, down from 19.7%.

Earlier this week, Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke warned Congress that without the right policies from the government, the US recession could last into 2010.

But he said if the Obama administration and the central bank can restore some measure of financial stability, 2010 could be a year of recovery.

President Obama recently signed a $787bn (£556m) recovery package of increased government spending and tax cuts, and unveiled a $75bn scheme to stem repossessions.

No good news

The latest GDP figures were "just awful" said Matt Esteve, a currency trader at Tempus Consulting in Washington DC. "It shows the weak state of the world's largest economy."

And Boris Schlossberg, director of currency research at GFT Forex said there was "doom all over".

He predicted that the dollar would not weaken too much against the euro because "there's no good news on the other side of the Atlantic, either".

India's economy: Can the boom last?

For the Indian economy the year 2003 ended on a high - on 20 December, the foreign exchange reserves breached the $100bn mark.

Shopping mall in Delhi
Fancy shopping malls cater to newly-enriched consumers

The year also saw Indian companies breaking into the international corporate market, making 35 global acquisitions totalling $450m.

Thinking internationally, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee floated the idea of a common currency for South Asia.

And the industrial sector is booming. Car sales in November were 41% higher than the previous year. Overall, Gross Domestic Product is expected to grow by more than 7% in the financial year ending in March 2004.

But it is easy to over-interpret this news.

Growth challenge

A sober analysis indicates that India is continuing to do well, as it has done since 1993, with 6% per annum average growth.

Bombay traders
Boom-time in Bombay: Record share prices spark a trading frenzy

This robustness, combined with the advantage of its size, means that it is a country that global players cannot ignore.

But if India is to go beyond this, to a sustained annual growth rate of over 8%, and with benefits reaching all levels of society, more needs to be done by government than whipping up electoral support by pointing to the headlines.

It is worth remembering that India has seen brief growth spurts before - its growth rate in 1988-89 exceeded 10%.

The challenge therefore, is to bring about sustained growth.

Economic interest

Consider the $100bn foreign exchange (forex) news.

The large reserve points to a good performance by the Reserve Bank - the reserve was $5.83bn in 1991.

But, in itself, this does not mean as much as the screaming newspaper headlines on 21 December suggested.

What was more significant was the fact that the news made the headlines.

Never before has dry, economic news been celebrated so widely in India.

The interest of the citizenry in such matters was reminiscent of South Korea in the 1980.

It augurs well for India as it compels politicians to divert some of their attention from politics to economics.

The forex reserve of a government is like an individual's bank balance.

The fact that it is high does not indicate economic strength and preparedness to respond to emergencies. Rather, it reflects the person's preference for keeping money in a bank rather than investing it in assets.

Indeed, there are economists who argue that India should run down a part of its reserve to increase investment.

Order first

The other big news was also one where the symbolic value outstripped the actual.

Indian diamonds on sale
Appetite for luxury: A saleswoman shows off costly Indian jewels

This was the idea floated by Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee of a common currency for South Asia.

Although this is not about to happen, the suggestion shows a level of maturity that political leaders can think in terms of economic co-operation even while political irritants remain.

Moreover, the very effort to build such co-operation could serve to reduce the risk of political conflict.

To guarantee long-run strength, the Indian Government needs to:

  • Raise the level of investment (and that includes investment in people)

  • Make a fetish of efficiency

  • Make it easier for new private firms to start up business.

    India's investment rate has remained virtually stationary at 24% (with a slight fall in the last three years).

    A sustained growth rate of over 8% will not be possible unless the investment rate rises to 30%. That, in turn, requires the government to put its fiscal house in order.

    Sweet subsidies

    On the human side, India has done better than Pakistan, but worse than its much poorer eastern neighbour, Bangladesh, in many dimensions.

    In 1990, under-5 child mortality (that is, the number of deaths before age 5 per 1000 children) was 144 in Bangladesh, 128 in Pakistan and 123 in India.

    By 2001 the numbers were Bangladesh 77, India 93, and Pakistan 109.

    Village women
    India's rural poor are still waiting for their share of the economic pie

    As far as school enrolment of girls as a percentage of boys go, the figure for Bangladesh is an exemplary 103%, whereas for India it is 78 and for Pakistan 61.

    India is a potential global economic power.

    But for that potential to be realised, its promise must not be treated as an instrument of short-term electoral popularity. Instead, the government must invest more on infrastructure and social improvement.

    For the Indian government to spend as much as it does - on subsidies and the bureaucracy - and then to wonder why the economy is not growing faster is like my father's youngest sister who in her old age lamented to me, "I don't know why I keep such poor health - I eat only sweets."

  • Dollar rises on Bernanke comments

    The dollar has rebounded from recent lows after US Federal Reserve boss Ben Bernanke said he would tighten monetary policy when the economy recovers. The comments eased concerns about the inflationary impact of US interest rates remaining at the current level of between 0% and 0.25%. Higher rates would also make the dollar more attractive to investors. Mr Bernanke's comments saw the dollar rise against the yen, and also gain against the euro and the pound. The pound was down 1.4% against the dollar at $1.5870 , while the euro had fallen 0.7% to $1.4705, and one dollar was worth 89.76 yen.

    'Prevent inflation'
    "Accommodative [fiscal] policies will likely be warranted for an extended period," Mr Bernanke said in a press conference at the Fed's Washington headquarters. "At some point, however, as economic recovery takes hold, we will need to tighten monetary policy to prevent the emergence of an inflation problem down the road." US economic data continues to point to a slow and patchy recovery in the world's largest economy. While a report last week showed that US firms cut more jobs than expected in September, figures this week detailed a rise in retail sales, and unemployment claims falling to a nine-month low.

    Tata buys breathing space as it raises $750m

    Tata Motors has raised $750m through an international share sale and convertible bond issue, completing the prolonged refinancing of a $3bn bridge loan it raised to fund its acquisition of former Ford marques, Jaguar and Land Rover, last year. The move, in which Tata Motors sold $375m of global depositary shares and the same amount in convertible bonds, buys India’s largest automotive producer some breathing space as it negotiates one of the most difficult periods in its history.Moody’s Investors Service analyst Ivan Palacios said in a research note: “Moody’s expects to see a slow but progressive improvement in [Tata Motors’] performance in the following quarters.”Tata Group, India’s largest conglomerate, bought Jaguar and Land Rover in June last year at the tail end of an overseas acquisition drive in which it also purchased Anglo-Dutch steel producer Corus and a number of other companies. The Jaguar and Land Rover acquisition ran into trouble. The global financial crisis made it difficult for Tata to refinance the bridge loans used for the purchase even as demand for cars plummeted.
    With markets picking up, however, Tata Motors has lined up about £500m ($794m) of financing facilities for Jaguar and Land Rover, relieving some of the pressure on its own balance sheet. The group has been forced to pump more than £1.2bn into the two brands to keep them afloat. Tata Motors said on Friday the GDS and convertible bond offering was closed in less than an hour after it received bids for more than double the original amount on offer. “The deal size was upsized from a base $600m to $750m,” it said, adding that the GDSs were sold at a 1.5 per cent discount to Tata Motors’ closing price in Mumbai on Thursday of Rs589.25. The notes, due in 2014, were sold with a coupon of 4 per cent and a conversion premium of 7.5 per cent over the GDS price.
    Tata Motors shares ended down 6.6 per cent at Rs548.30 per share on Friday as investors worried about the dilution from the GDS offering. The stock has tripled in value this year, helped by the improvement in the global automotive sector outlook. An analyst with a foreign brokerage in Mumbai said Tata Motors was taking advantage of a benign market to raise money against a future full of uncertainties. The outlook for Jaguar and Land Rover remained difficult, with a turnround in the UK-based businesses likely to take time. “They are making hay while the sun shines,” the analyst said. “They probably should have raised more.” Moody’s also cautioned that Tata Motors’ leverage remained high. “Moody’s expectation that the company will generate negative free cash flow in fiscal year 2009-10 means further leverage reductions will be challenging,” Mr Palacios said. Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.

    GM agrees Chinese sale of Hummer

    General Motors (GM) has agreed to sell its iconic Hummer brand to Chinese firm Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery for an undisclosed fee.

    The two parties had been in talks about the sale for a number of months. GM is in the process of selling and winding up a number of brands as it looks to reorganise after emerging from bankruptcy protection in July. At the start of this month, the troubled carmaker announced it would be winding down its Saturn brand. This was after the proposed sale to Penske Automotive Group collapsed. GM has already announced that it is discontinuing the Pontiac brand, and is close to finalising the sale of its European brands Saab, Opel and Vauxhall. GM plans to reinvent itself by concentrating on fewer brands following bankruptcy protection, made necessary after car sales plummeted during the downturn.


    'Next generation'
    Under the terms of the Hummer deal, Tengzhong will take an 80% stake in the company, with the remaining 20% going to Hong Kong entrepreneur Suolong Duoji. The current Hummer management team will continue to run the company. The deal is still subject to regulatory approval. "Hummer is a strong global niche brand and this agreement signifies another important milestone in writing the next chapter of both GM and Hummer," said GM boss Fritz Henderson. The company also said it would be focusing on improving efficiency, including the introduction of diesel engines. "We are excited about some of the initiatives already underway at Hummer that we believe our investment will be able to accelerate, particularly related to the creation of the next generation of more fuel efficient vehicles to meet not only future regulations but also customer expectations," said Yang Yi, chief executive of Tengzhong.

    Star struck
    Hummers were originally built as military off-road vehicles by a company called AM General. The brand took off as US motorists flocked to the sport utility vehicles favoured by celebrities including Arnold Schwarzenegger. GM bought the Hummer brand in 1999, but sales have suffered recently as the gas-guzzling performance and military image have become less popular.
    Hummers weigh up to five tons and have fuel consumption of around 15 miles per gallon. Tengzhong specialises in making equipment for the road, construction and energy industries. It is based in China's Sichuan province.

    Fall in Japan's unemployment rate


    Unemployed people at an empoyment bureau in Tokyo
    The rate of unemployment was expected to have continued ri

    Japan's jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 5.5% in August from July's record high of 5.7%, official figures showed.

    But the number of people unemployed hit a six-year high of 3.61 million in August, a figure which was up 32.7% on the same month of 2008. Official figures also showed that household spending rose 2.6% in August from a year earlier. Also on Friday, US figures for September showed 263,000 jobs had been lost, taking the jobless rate to 9.8%.

    'Worst levels'

    Analysts had been expecting the Japanese jobless rate to rise again in August. "The unemployment rate fell earlier than expected, but we don't know yet whether it is just a dip for one month or something more continuous," said Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPMorgan Securities. The quarterly Tankan survey of business confidence on Thursday had indicated that companies were feeling better than they had three months before, but that they still felt they had too much capacity and too many workers.

    The number of workers employed in manufacturing fell almost 10% year on year, but the number employed in the care and hospitality sectors rose. There was a cautious response to the figures from the government. "The figures may give the impression that the situation has improved a bit," said Labour Minister Akira Nagatsuma. "However, it continued to be around the worst levels in the post-war period."

    Global economy expanding says IMF

    Jobseekers fair
    The IMF says unemployment will remain

    The global economy is expanding again and financial conditions have improved significantly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.

    But in its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF said the "pace of recovery is expected to be slow". It added that the recovery is likely to be "insufficient to decrease unemployment for quite some time". On Wednesday, the IMF cut its forecast for the amount that banks are likely to lose in bad loans and investments. The total it expects banks to lose between 2007 and 2010 is now $3.4tn (£2.1tn), down from its previous estimate of $4tn. This reduction is a direct result of the improved outlook for the global economy.

    Separately, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) said that the 16 countries in the eurozone should withdraw stimulus packages in the next two years. "From an ECB point of view, it is important to do what is necessary to exit as soon as possible," Jean-Claude Trichet said at a meeting of EU finance ministers and central bank governors in Gothenburg. "It is important in our view that it starts as soon as the recovery starts. It is something which is essential for the recovery itself. "I would say, in our own view, at the latest in 2011."

    Recovery risks

    The global recovery is being led by Asia, where economies have "withstood the financial turmoil much better than expected," the IMF said. But gains are now being seen in developed economies, where "financial market sentiment and risk appetite have rebounded", it added. Despite the improved outlook, however, the fund said there were a number of risks to the recovery. It cited major government stimulus packages, central bank support and restocking by companies that have run down inventories as three temporary factors that "will diminish during the course of 2010".

    It also highlighted the fact that banks are being forced to hold more cash in reserve, which will limit the amount of credit available "for the remainder of 2009 and into 2010". With less money available to companies and individuals to borrow, and therefore invest, demand may be stifled. Most serious, it concluded, was the fact that "private demand in advanced economies remains very weak".

    Increased growth

    The IMF predicts that the US economy will contract by 2.7% in 2009, before growing by 1.5% next year. The eurozone, it thinks, will shrink by 4.2% this year and grow by 0.3% in 2010. It has upgraded its forecast for UK economic growth to 0.9% next year, up from a previous estimate of 0.2%. This puts the UK top of Europe's leading economies for growth in 2010, alongside France. The German economy, the IMF thinks, will grow 0.3% next year, while the Spanish economy will shrink by 0.7%. The world's fastest-growing economy in 2010 will be Singapore, which will expand by 4.1%, closely followed by Taiwan, Slovakia, South Korea and Hong Kong, according to the fund.

    More US jobs lost than expected

    Job fair in Baltimore
    The economy has shed 7.6 million jobs since the recession beg

    The US economy lost 263,000 jobs in September, which was more than had been expected, according to official non-farm payrolls figures.

    The jobless rate rose to a fresh 26-year high of 9.8% from August's figure of 9.7%. The number in employment has now fallen for 21 consecutive months. There was more bad news from the Labor Department, which revised its figures for July and August to show 13,000 more jobs lost than previously reported. The economy as a whole is expected to have grown in the past three months, but recovery in the jobs market tends to lag behind the rest of the economy.

    'Pattern of weakness'

    Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of people out of work has risen by 7.6 million to 15.1 million. "Together with the ISM data, delinquencies data and even the consumer confidence data we had, we're starting to see a pattern of weakness emerge," said Kevin Caron, market strategist at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co in New Jersey. "We saw a lot of artificial involvement by the government to prop up the markets, and now that that is starting to end the private sector isn't yet showing signs of life."Government employment, which has been one of the factors boosting the economy in the past year, fell by 53,000 in September. The other big areas of job losses were construction, manufacturing and retail.

    Confidence needed

    "It shows expectations for recovery may have gotten a little ahead of the reality," said Gary Thayer at Wells Fargo Advisors in Missouri. "The trend is still improved from earlier this year, but employers need to feel more confident about the economy before they start hiring again." The US is not alone in seeing rising unemployment, with the 16 nations that use the euro announcing on Thursday that its seasonally adjusted rate rose to 9.6% in August, putting the number of people without a job at 15.2 million. Earlier on Friday, Japan unexpectedly announced that its jobless rate had fallen to 5.5% in August from July's record high of 5.7%, but the number of people unemployed still hit a six-year high of 3.61 million.

    Australia raises interest rates

    Mine in South Australia
    The strength of Australia's mining sector helped it avoid recessi

    Australia has raised its main interest rate to 3.25% from 3%, becoming the first G20 nation to do so as the global economy begins to recover.

    The move by its central bank was not unexpected as the Australian economy was the only one in the developed world to expand in the first half of 2009. In fact, Australia managed to avoid recession, only seeing its economy contract in the last quarter of 2008. Its government has helped the economy with major stimulus spending. It has spent 42bn Australian dollars ($35bn; £21bn) on schemes including cash handouts for pensioners and for low and middle-income families, and a number of infrastructure projects.

    This helped the economy to grow 0.4% in the first quarter of this year, and by 0.6% in the second, rebounding from the 0.5% contraction between October and December 2008.

    'Gradual move'

    "The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had widely advertised it was near to edging up rates from their extraordinary lows, and now it's done so," said Rory Robertson, interest rate strategist at Macquarie. "It will be a gradual move from an emergency rate of 3%, to a still-easy 4%." Mr Robertson added that if the Australian economy continued to expand as expected, rates could return to "a more normal 5%" in the next year or two. Tuesday's move is the first time the Australian central bank has increased interest rates since March 2008. The Australian economy has also managed to avoid falling into recession thanks to the strength of its mining sector, which has continued to see strong demand from China for its iron ore and other commodities. "The Australian economy is outperforming other advanced economies, and I guess many economists will see the decision today as a consequence of economic recovery," said Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan.

    Lada carmaker to cut 27,600 jobs


    Lada cars
    Lada may be a well-known brand, but sales have dropped 40% this y

    Russia's largest carmaker, Avtovaz, is to cut up to 27,600 jobs as it tries to cope with the global slump in demand.

    The job cuts are more than a quarter of the 102,000-strong workforce at Avtovaz, which makes Lada cars.

    Reports had suggested that 36,000 job losses were considered, but the company said that it managed to "significantly lower the initial figure".

    Russia had the fastest growing car market in Europe until the financial crisis hit demand.

    Overhaul

    "Today, 102,000 people work at Avtovaz," the carmaker said.

    "Such a number cannot guarantee effective and profitable production, therefore we have agreed to reduce the personnel by 27,600 people."

    This includes 5,000 job cuts in "white collar" jobs announced last week, it said.

    Of the workers being eliminated, Avtovaz said 13,000 employees would retire with pensions while another 5,500 would be forced to take early retirement.

    The remaining 9,100 employees would leave the firm, but Avtovaz said 6,000 of those would have the option to work at the carmaker again in 2012.

    Sales have dropped 40% this year as consumers, hard hit by the financial crisis, have shunned the carmaker.

    Production freezes

    Avtovaz, which is 25%-owned by French automaker Renault, had imposed month-long production freezes while it tried to reduce levels of its unsold stock.

    No cars were built in August and the plant will work two weeks in four from September to February, which meant that the workers will have to survive for six months on half pay of $300 (£176) a month.

    The decision led to large worker protests.

    The carmaker was set up with Italy's Fiat during the Soviet years.

    It is a key employer in the southern city of Togliatti based by the Volga River, which has a population of 700,000.

    Japan Airlines requests bail-out

    Japan Airlines plane
    The airline had said it expected to make a heavy loss this y

    Loss-making carrier Japan Airlines (JAL) has asked for a government bail-out to help it survive.

    JAL president Haruka Nishimatsu made the requests after meeting Japan's new transport minister. He also proposed a more drastic restructuring.

    The airline recently announced plans to cut 6,800 jobs.

    JAL's shares had already tumbled 18% to a record low on rumours that it was seeking public money, or that it might seek to break up the company.

    Tie-up hopes

    "Ultimately, we think that the use of more funds will reduce our debts to the public," Mr Nishimatsu said.

    He made the comments to reporters after meeting Transport Minister Seiji Maehara, who took over the role after the Democratic Party took charge of the government.

    Mr Nishimatsu plans to apply for public funds under the industrial revitalisation law.

    The law means that companies need to obtain approval from the government to restructure. They can then apply for loans from banks, which are backed by the Japanese government's wholly-owned Japan Finance Corp.

    Media reports recently have said that several US and European airlines - including Air France-KLM, Delta Airlines and American Airlines - are in the running to take a stake in JAL and expand into Asia via code-sharing agreements.

    Mr Nishimatsu said last week that he hoped JAL would have a deal in place with an international carrier by the middle of October.

    Sector suffers

    The airline industry as a whole has suffered in the global downturn, hit by a combination of falling passenger numbers and high oil prices.

    The International Air Transport Association (Iata) has increased its forecast for losses across the whole industry to $11bn for 2009, from the $9bn it predicted earlier this month.

    Airlines have already lost $6bn in the first half of the year alone, Iata said, with Asian airlines among the hardest hit.

    In the Asia-Pacific region, Iata predicts airlines will report losses of $3.6bn for 2009.

    China takes $850m commodity stake


    Lou Jiwei is the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of CIC.
    Lou Jiwei is the head of the Chinese sovereign fu

    China's sovereign wealth fund has bought a stake in a Hong Kong-based commodities trading firm.

    China Investment Corp, the country's $200bn (£123bn) fund, took a 15% stake in Noble Group in return for $850m.

    The deal comes after China recently signed a pact with another commodity trader, Glencore, in an attempt to increase its influence in the sector.

    China's rapid economic growth has made it one of the world's largest consumer of raw materials such as oil and steel.

    Rising interest

    Noble, whose shares are listed in Singapore, is one of the few publicly-listed commodity trading houses.

    China's fund bought its shares at an 8% discount to Noble's last traded share price of 2.30 Singapore dollars.

    Noble has investments in Australian coal, soybean crushing plants and sugar and ethanol mills in Brazil, among others.

    In July, China Investment Corp paid $1.5bn for a 17% stake in Canadian miner Teck Resources Ltd.

    "A lot of sovereign wealth funds or state-linked firms are increasingly showing interest in resources, so this is in line with the trend," said OCBC Securities analyst Lee Wen Ching. "Noble provides access to a diversified portfolio."

    Sovereign wealth funds are the investment funds established by governments in Asia and the Middle East mainly, who have large surpluses of money which they wish to invest abroad.

    Abu Dhabi has the largest fund, at $800bn, while Norway's is $400bn and Singapore has a $330bn sovereign fund.

    China's fund was established in September 2007.

    G20 'to call for economy balance'


    A woman shopping in Shaghai
    Nations such as China need to spend more, the G20 is set to sa

    This week's G20 summit in the US will call for major reforms to promote a more balanced global economy, according to a document seen by the BBC.

    A draft paper hints at significant policy changes from G20 countries, including the UK, the US and China.

    And while stimulus packages should continue for now, the document called for the creation of "transparent and credible" means to unwind that support.

    Leaders will meet in Pittsburgh with the economy high on the agenda.

    No enforcement

    The document says huge imbalances in the global economy must be ironed out.

    If this does not happen, the world will "face anaemic growth" at levels that are "unacceptably low", it says.

    However the paper does not suggest any mechanism for enforcing its plans - other than countries coming under pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    And while no countries are mentioned by name, BBC business correspondent Joe Lynam says the document is suggesting that rich indebted countries, such as Britain and the US, should save more while cautious and savings-oriented nations such as Germany and China increase spending.

    The document is ambitious, our business correspondent adds, and is aimed at removing some of the wild economic swings that have marked the opening decade of the 21st Century.

    There have long been calls for China to allow its currency, the yuan, to rise, encouraging Chinese consumers to spend more on foreign goods.

    But others argue that in the longer term, China should work on improving pensions, healthcare and other policies, to reduce the incentive people have to save so much.

    Stimulus withdrawal

    The document appears to back comments made by British Prime Minister Gordon Brown that there will be no early end to the international stimulus package aimed at taking the world out of recession.

    But it calls on the IMF and the G20's Financial Stability Board to draw up, by November, "transparent and credible" ways of withdrawing that financial support.

    The document also acknowledges that each country will have to find its own way of winding back its support in terms of the scale and timing of the pullback of support.

    Forecasts for Asian growth raised


    Toy seller in front of government slogan, Beijing, July 09
    Government stimulus packages have helped to boost domestic d

    The economies of China and India are set to grow by more than previously thought in 2009, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has said.

    Government spending in developing Asian economies had enhanced the region's growth prospects, it said. It now expects China to grow by 8.2% in 2009, up from an earlier forecast of 7%. India's forecast has been raised to 6% from 5%. But it also warned governments not to withdraw stimulus policies too soon.

    "Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies have softened the blow of the global slump on the economy," the ADB said in its updated annual outlook. "A surge in bank lending and vigorous fixed-asset investment has maintained growth at a higher pace than was expected in March." But it added: "This is not the time for an exit from expansionary policies - the recovery remains fragile and subject to serious downside risks." The ADB raised its growth forecasts for the region to 3.9% in 2009, from its previous forecast of 3.4%. It also raised its 2010 forecasts to 6.4% from its previous estimate of 6%.

    आउने भयो टेलिफोनको तारबाट टिभी

    काठमाडौं, भदौ २१-टेलिकमको लक्ष्यअनुसार काम हुन सके आउँदो एक वर्षभित्र तारवाला टेलिफोनका उपभोक्ताले केबुल टिभीसमेत प्रयोग गर्न पाउने छन्। त्यसपछि अहिले जस्तो टेलिफोन, केबुल टिभी र इन्टरनेटका लागि छूट्टाछूट्टै तार प्रयोग गर्नूपर्ने छैन। नेपाल टेलिकमले टेलिफोनको तारबाट टेलिफोनमात्र नभै इन्टरनेट र केबुल टिभीसमेत दिने प्रविधि ल्याउन लागेको हो। एक वर्ष अघिदेखि यस्तो प्रविधिको चर्चा भए पनि टेलिकमले उपकरण किन्न हालै सुचना प्रकाशित गरेको छ। अहिले टेलिफोनको तारबाट एडिएसएल प्रविधिबाट इन्टरनेट चल्छ। तर, केबुल टिभी भने चलिसकेको छैन। एनजिएनअर्न्तगत वितरण हुने इन्टरनेट अहिलेको एडिएसएल दाँजोमा सस्तो र द्रूतगतिको हुन्छ। 'नेक्स्ट जेनेरेसन नेटवर्क (एनजीएन)' भनिने यस्तो प्रविधि ल्याउन टेलिकमले काम सूरु गरिसकेको छ। 'हामीले उपकरण किन्न टेण्डर आव्हान गरिसकेका छौं,' टेलिकमका नायव प्रवन्ध निर्देशक अनुपरन्जन भट्टराईले भने। टेलिकमले चारलाख लाइन एनजीएन किन्ने योजना बनाएको छ। यसका लागि तीनदेखि चार करोड अमेरिकी डलर खर्च हुने अनुमान छ। 'बढीमा चार करोड डलर खर्च हुने अनुमान गरिएको छ,' भट्टराईले भने।

    एनजीएनको मुल्य अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय बजारमा छोटो समयमै तलमाथि भैरहने हूँदा टेलिकमले अनुमान गरेको यो मुल्यभन्दा अझै सस्तोमा पनि पाउनसक्छ। टेलिकमको लक्ष्यअनुसार काम भए एक वर्षभित्र काठमाडौंबासीले एउटै तारबाट तीन किसिमको सेवा लिन सक्ने छन्। अहिले टेलिकमले तारबाट टेलिफोन र इन्टरनेट सेवा दिइरहेको छ। केबुल टिभीसमेत टेलिफोनको तारबाट प्रशारण गरेर ग्राहकका घरसम्म पूर्‍याउन निजी कम्पनीसँग 'सेयरिङ' गर्ने प्रस्ताव गरिएको छ। टेलिफोनको तारबाट केबुल टिभी दिन दूई विदेशी कम्पनीले चासो देखाएका छन्। यसका लागि चीनको जेडटीई र अमेरिकाको यूटिस्टार कम्पनीले केही महिना अघि टेलिकमलाई प्रस्ताव बुझाएको स्रोत बताउँछ। टेलिफोनको तारबाट प्रसारण हुने केबुल टिभीलाई आइपी (इन्टरनेट प्रोटोकल टिभी) भनिन्छ। यस अर्न्तगत लाइभ र रेकर्डेड टेलिभिजन कार्यक्रमसमेत ग्राहक कहाँ पूर्‍याउने तयारी सूरु गरेको हो। भारतमा दुरसञ्चार सेवा प्रदायक कम्पनी एअरटेलले गत माघ पहिलो सातादेखि आइपी टिभी सूरु गरेको छ। एअरटेलले टेलिफोन तारबाटै एक सय च्यानल टिभी सेटसम्म पूर्‍याइरहेको छ। सूरुको चरण भएकाले शूल्क च्यानलको संख्याअनुसार कम्तिमा ६ सय देखि १ हजार भारतीय रुपियाँसम्म तोकिएको छ।